Some Still Count on Farmers Almanacs Weather Predictions
Frustrated the local weatherman can’t ever seem to get the forecast right? If it is so difficult to predict whether or not it will be raining when you get up tomorrow morning, how is it that the Farmers’ Almanac predicts weather two years in advance?
Well, if you go to the Farmers’ Almanac’s web site (and yes, the Farmers’ Almanac is online!) you will discover that weather predictions that appear in the Farmers’ Almanac are based on a secret mathematical and astronomical formula. It was developed by the Almanac’s first editor and has been guarded and passed down through the years. The only person who now knows the formula is the Farmers’ Almanac’s current weather prognosticator whose name and location is top secret.
While the Farmers’ Almanac acknowledges that weather forecasting is an inexact science, many Almanac followers claim an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate. Many experts say the vagueness of the predictions is what accounts for this. If a particular day is forecast to be overcast and warm, what happens if the day is overcast but cool? Is the prediction correct? Some say yes, some say no.
Many skeptics say that the chances of some weather events occurring have pretty good odds and those odds work in the Almanac’s favor. For instance, on the Farmers’ Almanac website it states that when Hurricane Irene hit the southeastern U.S. in August 2011, the Almanac had predicted the threat. Again, skeptics would argue predicting hurricane activity in that part of the U.S. in late summer is hardly a stretch. It also begs the question; did the Almanac also predict snow in the Rockies, or rainy conditions in the Pacific Northwest?
With today’s sophisticated weather forecasting equipment, many meteorologists think the editors of the Almanac should come clean about their specific formula for predicting weather. If it is legitimate, they argue, why the secrecy? But some people are willing to take the Almanac’s word for it and buy into their weather predictions – although the editors themselves admit there are no guarantees. That doesn’t deter many brides who say they have picked their wedding date based on the Almanac’s prediction of clear skies!
Whether or not you believe the Farmers’ Almanac’s weather predictions, it’s interesting to keep track of how accurate the Almanac is from year to year. And while predicting the weather is its claim to fame, there are several other reasons to pick up a copy of the Farmers’ Almanac. It’s chock-full of information on fishing, gardening, cooking, and more. Plus, it contains tradition mixed with lore, fun facts, trivia, and jokes. So even if the Almanac isn’t always spot on when it comes to the weather, it is still worth taking the time to read!